forecastbench
A dynamic forecasting benchmark for LLMs
Stars: 51
ForecastBench is a dynamic benchmark tool for evaluating LLM forecasting accuracy with human comparison groups. It provides a contamination-free environment and serves as a proxy for general intelligence. The tool offers leaderboards and datasets updated nightly, along with instructions for submitting models. Users can explore detailed information on the wiki and cite the tool using the provided BibTeX citation. Developers can set up the tool locally, run GCP Cloud Functions, and contribute to the project by following specific guidelines.
README:
A dynamic, contamination-free benchmark of LLM forecasting accuracy with human comparison groups, serving as a valuable proxy for general intelligence. More at www.forecastbench.org.
Leaderboards and datasets are updated nightly and available at github.com/forecastingresearch/forecastbench-datasets.
Instructions for how to submit your model to the benchmark can be found here: How-to-submit-to-ForecastBench.
Dig into the details of ForecastBench on the wiki.
@inproceedings{karger2025forecastbench,
title={ForecastBench: A Dynamic Benchmark of AI Forecasting Capabilities},
author={Ezra Karger and Houtan Bastani and Chen Yueh-Han and Zachary Jacobs and Danny Halawi and Fred Zhang and Philip E. Tetlock},
year={2025},
booktitle={International Conference on Learning Representations (ICLR)},
url={https://iclr.cc/virtual/2025/poster/28507}
}git clone --recurse-submodules <repo-url>.gitcd forecastbench-
cp variables.example.mk variables.mkand set the values accordingly - Setup your Python virtual environment
make setup-python-envsource .venv/bin/activate
cd directory/containing/cloud/functioneval $(cat path/to/variables.mk | xargs) python main.py
Before creating a pull request:
- run
make lintand fix any errors and warnings - ensure code has been deployed to Google Cloud Platform and tested (only for our devs, for others, we're happy you're contributing and we'll test this on our end).
- fork the repo
- reference the issue number (if one exists) in the commit message
- push to the fork on a branch other than
main - create a pull request
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